The question isn't so much who'll win but whether coming up with all these different authentication schemes isn't creating more problems than it's solving. The original problem was this: each website requires authentication. This leads to a management issue for people that visit multiple sites. The solution: create a scheme where users can login to multiple sites with a single set of credentials. Everything else (social features, profiles etc) are just gravy on top.
So now the next time I visit a website, I won't have to remember a username/password combination. But I better remember which authentication scheme I used to create my account. Was it Faceboob Connect? Google Friend Connect? OpenID? Windows Live? yikes! I almost wish for the old days where I could simply use the same freaking username/password combo across the entire internet